Mortgage Mario

Ben Nye “The Finance Guy” Discusses the state of the 2021 economy!

video transcript

Ben Nye the finance guy
okay this is mortgage Mario i’m with ben
nye the finance guy he’s one of my
really good friends i play tennis with
them uh how are you doing this afternoon
i’m doing great mario it’s great to be
with you
yeah it’s awesome to have you here
thanks for being on my show it’s uh it’s
a great honor to have you here and so uh
ben is a financial expert so he knows
like you know everything when it comes
down uh to the the financial realm and
if i ever have any questions i use them
as a resource um and his expertise to
kind of just be able to know what
direction i need to take my clients as
far as
anything having to do with the financial
industry so
um ben you are um working on attaining
your your master’s of finance and you
are a senior um financial analyst for
norwalk capital is that is that all
yeah i have a uh
mba from emory and then i have a cfa
designation which is charter financial
analyst and i have frm financial risk
manager but no one knows about that one
so yeah you really talk about that yeah
and a big difference too because there
are a lot of like financial
um you know advisors out there and maybe
financial planners but you have like the
highest level
of you know the certifications when it
comes to the financial realms i know a
lot of people um that are maybe like a
financial planner you obviously kind of
got it above and beyond with your
certification so and i think a lot of
people the general public don’t
understand the difference between those
uh two so but am i i’m correct in that
regard as well
yeah i think that the whole financial
industry is so broad
so what i typically do in the day to day
is analyze
uh economic trends i analyze uh
individual companies i do a lot of
analysis on individual companies fixed
income instruments
um and that sort of thing so it’s
and then also providing financial advice
as well um so we definitely do have a
financial planning department but i
don’t do as much on the financial
planning side itself um
and definitely not recommending mutual
funds or anything like that
and and just as a disclosure nothing
else what about bitcoin do you recommend
bitcoin like i just put everything in
and this um
on this call nothing will be
i i just i fully absolve myself of any
liability um for the record though uh
yeah just by the way yeah yeah
this is this is all for educational
purposes everyone so anything we say
can’t be held against us in court okay
there you go go on i just want to cover
my butt
the record as far as far as crypto
currencies go i do not i think a lot of
times it’s the best
best way of going about and seeing what
someone really actually likes or doesn’t
like is what they own or what they do
they don’t own and i do not own bitcoin
and i don’t own dogecoin for that matter
either so but some famous actors on
bitcoin who is it that’s uh elon musk is
big and uh is it dogecoin he’s in he’s
big in the dogecoin he has a lot of
money isn’t it i mean if he’s doing it
then i should do it right he’s uh he
certainly has more money than me and
he’s done
so run it through him for that yeah
um but anyway so i love the videos i can
actually put post a link in my uh video
for you ben on you know if someone wants
more of an extensive high level of the
state of the economy because i i’ve seen
those videos that you do
and i love them um and you do them at
such a very just high level and they’re
honestly just where i gather a lot of my
information when it comes to the city
economy comes from your videos so i
prefer to be more of a video person so
i’ll post a link to that but on this
video i just kind of want to hit some
key highlights and some cliff notes uh
on the uh the state of the economy so
some biggies including
mortgage rates since um you know since i
am a mortgage loan officer and rates is
always a daily discussion with all of my
potential clients and uh current clients
yeah definitely i think we’ll finish off
with that uh save the best for last yeah
but as far as the state of the economy
goes i think the the three things that
you got to keep in mind constantly right
now is is coveted still kind of driving
the bus um at least the residual impacts
of cobit
you know there’s been a lot of talk
about long covet in
terms of people’s health
and i think that we have long covered in
the economy and so let me explain a
little bit what that means uh first of
all we all knew
know that we had another wave of code
this summer
what i don’t think a lot of people
really appreciate it is the impact kobet
had on
especially southeast asia and china in
the third quarter and so what you ended
up seeing was
because you couldn’t really get anything
out of china a lot of the factories were
closed in fact the factories in vietnam
were closed for 10 weeks
that’s where nike produces all of its
shoes it’s pretty tough to get your
supply and get sales when the place
where all your shoes are produced is
effectively shut
for the vast majority of the quarter
came in at just two percent
in the third quarter that’s not the gdp
number that you want in a recovery you
want you know the numbers in the four
five six seven percent range and those
were the numbers we were getting
until the third quarter but because of
the shutdowns because of the supply
chain issues
you just weren’t seeing that
economic growth as much as you thought
you might
in the united states job growth was
fairly weak in august it was weak again
in september i do think that it’ll start
to pick up though here in october what
ends up happening is
as you move through and as you start to
reopen these economies vietnam’s now
open um i was just off a conference call
on under armour and they said all the
factories there are open
china is open again
you’re starting to get some production
and you’re starting to get those
containers moving and you’re starting to
get those ships moving again
and when when that starts to fire up
it’s going to take uh some time to
digest through the system but i do think
that we almost have a secondary opening
except the first time we had the
reopening it was on the demand side of
the economy as people started to go into
businesses and start to buy stuff again
this reopening is more on the supply
side of the economy that’s the stuff we
don’t really see a lot of we still have
labor issues that we need to get through
you see all these ads
now the ads are not trying to get people
to buy something they’re trying to get
people to work for them and so we’re
working through that now and i think as
the economies
both domestically and abroad continue to
reopen i actually think that you could
have a little bit of an acceleration in
the economy and i wouldn’t be surprised
to see economic growth in the fourth
quarter hit five or six percent again um
which would be a really nice
acceleration from two percent well
that’s good news that just made me happy
obviously the real estate market right
so from my perspective i mean people are
gonna be making money they’re gonna want
to buy homes they’re gonna want to stop
you know renting obviously and um so
from the real estate perspective that’s
i mean that’s going to be very
beneficial right
i i think i think you’re exactly right i
think you’re already starting to see
uh bottoming out redfin actually pushes
some great data out every week
uh in terms of um pending sales pending
sales versus the prior year
average median selling prices as well as
sale to list price and we’re still above
100 in terms of sale the list price so
the on average homes are selling
above list price in the united states so
that’s good news if you’re a seller not
so great if you’re a buyer but the good
thing is you do have
relatively low interest rates right now
that you can get and and so you can be
able to finance a more aggressive uh
purchase price at those low mortgage
rates um
and it’s kind of like a why in my
opinion right now people are waiting out
to get a better a quote-unquote better
deal on a mortgage but obviously when
you’re buying real estate you’re doing
it for the long term you’re not doing it
for short-term gain you know it’s like
when you shut down your financial
advisor and you want all these big
returns in the beginning you’re like
look you’re retiring at 59 and a half
and you’re 25 years old sir kind of
similar thing with real estate we’re
like yes okay maybe you paid three five
thousand dollars for a listing price but
you also have a 2.7 percent interest
rate you know look at this amorous over
the course of the loan you know you’re
actually saving a lot more money doing
that and that is deterring a lot of
first-time home buyers from uh executing
on a purchase price uh you know um
transactions so what what’s your opinion
on that you kind of agree with me there
yeah i i agree with you on that i mean
i’ll use an analogy real quick everyone
i just want to hear he agreed with me
and this guy’s like the smartest finance
guy i know okay so
i never claimed to be the smartest guy
but i listen to really smart people and
he agrees with me okay go on first time
home buyers just wanted you to know that
so two things number one
is that the number of stocks where i’ve
had a purchase price
you know it goes down it goes down i’m
waiting for let’s say i’m waiting for it
to hit ten dollars and i’ll buy and it
goes down to ten dollars and three cents
and i don’t end up buying it
i’ve done this too many times i’m trying
to get better at it um and the next
thing you know it’s twenty dollars a
share like those three pennies really
going to make a difference in the long
term and if you think about it it’s even
more so in the
home purchase market
especially if it’s a one if you’re
buying your first home and you’re going
to be living in it
because the fact of the matter is
the market moves
you’re now in the you’re now in the game
you own a property so if the market goes
up 20
you’re gonna end up and you want to move
you’re gonna end up having to buy
another house that’s up 20 too but at
least you’re in the game versus if you
just continue to rent and things go up
20 not only are you still spending money
every month on rent
but now you have to pay something 20
more so i think that
you know if you’re gonna stay in some
place in one place for an extended
buy something you can afford we’re not
saying buy something you can’t afford
don’t try to and that’s not even
into it
they’re they’re so strict on dti’s the
fannie the fhfa that oversees the fannie
mae the freddie mac secondary markets
were lenders borrow money from they are
so strict on the guidelines so if you
connect to a loan officer like me and
they say you are approved for this price
point don’t worry you’re good to go it’s
not like the good old days where they
would they would put your you know their
hand on your neck and gay yo hey ben you
got a pulse we’re gonna give you a loan
so and i think so so many people are
scarred from 08 and that’s another thing
that’s preventing first-time home buyers
from um from buying a house because they
basically hear all the information from
the baby boomers their you know their
you know their their fathers and you
know you know the mother and things like
that that oh you know we got this we got
this mortgage and that guy loan officer
scammed me or whatever and don’t don’t
listen a word that mario guy says he’s a
liar things have evolved you know sir
you know mister things have changed so
drastically so you know if you got to
prove that 200 000 condo like you are
good you have the dti for that uh but go
on ben
the only the last thing i would say is
that when you’re looking at rent prices
those are just going to keep going
i was looking at rent prices the other
day and
they’re really raising rent prices
fairly aggressively and so and it makes
sense because their property values have
gone up too so they’re going to raise
rent on you
so you end up paying for it one way or
the other at least if you own a property
you know your payments fixed i know i
bought my
home through
affinity home lending actually a couple
years ago before uh before mario got
but um
you know one of the great comforts that
i had when i purchased my home was you
know i don’t know what the home price is
going to do
and frankly i don’t care because the
market’s gonna go down or up
regardless um and i’ll still i’ll be in
the game regardless but the real comfort
i have i’m not swallowing another six
percent seven percent increase in my
rent every single year
um my payment is fixed for the next 30
years i have an hoa bill but apart from
that and property taxes it’s not
yeah that that’s awesome like it’s a
it’s a long it’s a slam dunk when you
know you’re going to be there in the
long term uh none of us have a crystal
ball so we can’t obviously see the
future and know exactly what’s gonna
happen um you know we can we can crunch
some numbers and we can you know crunch
and analyze that and try to forecast
things but still
nothing is guaranteed in life except for
death taxes and getting the best
mortgage rate for mario
those are the three things guaranteed in
life but um okay cool well cool ben gone
sorry it started interrupts
oh no
the last thing that i had was uh you
asked about mortgage rates
i’ve been phenomenally bad at
forecasting mortgage rates so um oh
don’t say that i’m going to cut that out
in the video
but um here’s what here’s what i do know
is that the federal reserve is almost
certainly going to be uh scaling back
its asset purchases
uh to mark beginning tomorrow
um at the at its meeting and what that
means is they’re not going to be buying
mortgage-backed securities so what
happens when you lose a buyer of
mortgage-backed securities
if you lose demand for something the
price of the the price of it begins to
uh fall which basically means that you
be paying more money for your mortgage
so if the federal reserve stops
starts to slow its purchases of
mortgage-backed securities
the rates are more likely to go higher
than lower so
i think right now i mean i think it’s a
fairly opportunistic time to be making a
purchase to be refinancing
it’s just historically cheap money and
with the economy accelerating in my view
i think that rates are more likely to go
up than they are to go down so that’ll
be my view on mortgage rates um
but again take it for what it’s worth
yep yep i appreciate that so but
i mean ultimately no one has a crystal
ball in my opinion and if i see someone
that still has pmi that’s private
mortgage insurance and you know maybe
they bought their house two or three
years ago or uh or maybe they want to
drop down they finally have the debt to
income uh to be able to handle a you
know a 15-year refinance and you know
you’ve seen the course of loaning
receive a lot of interest there and if
you like the end of the day if you you
see the rate and you like your mortgage
payment there then lock in don’t sit and
worry about the future because none of
us can see the future so that’s a big
thing but there there still is are good
opportunities to capitalize on the refi
market but um from a lot of the veterans
told me i know uh the president owner of
the finney home lending dj uh when he
you know he’s been in mortgages um you
know since the stone ages
and you know he says once he starts
seeing them kind of going up then he
just sees them they just shoot up and
then the refines are over and i know a
lot of the you know the veteran um you
know financial experts and mortgage loan
officers are predicting that you know
we’re kind of at the tail end
of the refi boom so um if you haven’t
then you know i think you really really
need to look at least look into doing it
um but yeah i i appreciate um you being
on the show ben you’ve been you’ve been
a great help um i’m gonna you know put
this on my website and everything and
let it be you know good content for any
of my viewers so
that way if they’re kind of you know
have any questions regarding the
financial process then you know this
will hopefully answer some of their
also mario thanks for having me on all
right have a good one

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